Rustom Is Third Best Opening Of 2016 Friday 12 August 2016 14.30 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Rustom has take the third best opening of the year in terms of all India occupancy after Sultan and Fan which were bot holiday releases. The clash has meant the occupancy is little bit higher than normal for both films as the screens have been shared by both films. The occupancy of Rustom ensures that it will lead on day one as Mohenjo Daro can’t close this gap despite being having a higher screen count. The films together will still probably struggle to get 25 crore nett plus between them which would be a par number for two big films on a non holiday coming on more than 5000 screens but that will be due to the under performance of Mohenjo Daro.
1. Sultan – 70% (4350 Screens)
2. Fan – 42.5% (3400 Screens)
3. Rustom – 40% (2350 screens)
4. Baaghi – 37.5% (2700 Screens)
5. Housefull 3 – 32.5% (3600 Screens)
6. Dishoom – 30% (3000 screens)
7. Airlift – 27.5% (2000 Screens)
8. Mohenjo Daro- 25% (2700 screens)
Note – These occupancy are for morning shows before noon only and do not reflect how the final day will end up as the trend is sometimes different in the evening.
Rustom is set for a solid first day which can set a good platform for its weekend business. Mohenjo Daro will be all about growth on Saturday which is tough with a clash.
Sultan Takes Bumper Opening – New Records Likely Wednesday 06 July 2016 11.00 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Sultan has taken a bumper opening af around 70% on average and this looked on the cards due to the mega advance. The opening is fantastic all over with North, Rajasthan and CI leading. The collections at most places are historic while in UP they are just out of this world with many places in the state going over capacity.
The key is that traditionally weak pockets for Salman Khan like West Bengal and Mysore have opened to a huge response and even these circuits could set records on day one. Tamil Nadu / Kerala could have better but a small circuit like this hardly makes a difference.
It will be surprising if the film does not take the highest opening day ever and crosses the 40 crore nett mark for the first time. The way the film is opened even a crazy 45 crore nett total or higher cannot be written off but will depend how the day plays out and with so many screenings there are always odd show timings in the afternoon and late afternoon which record lower occupancy.
Sultan has given a breather to the industry which has not really seen a film in a long time interest the audience to bring them in initially. It shows the audience is still there but as long as the film looks a proper Hindi film in the commercial format and not poor copies of films from US, Europe and the Far East or films with story telling styles which are alien to majority of the Indian audience.
Fan has a very good start at most places registering around 45-50% occupancy on average at multiplexes. The morning occupancy are lower than Dilwale but the film has far more screenings than that film and with the added advantage of a holiday, the multiplex business should easily surpass the Dilwale multiplex business.
The opening in mass centres is average but that is expected as the film is devoid of music and certain other commercial angles. Even here though Dilwale had all this, it was hugely affected by the intolerance angle at that time and mass centres could not collect as they should have.
The last real opening was Dilwale four months back and its taken another Shahrukh Khan film to get the initials going. In between that time only two Hollywood releases Batman v Superman and The Jungle book took an opening and both were dubbed films. The best opening has been the multiplexes of West Bengal followed by Pune.
The key for Fan will be that the presence of Shahrukh Khan and holiday factor will enable mass centres to good to decent collections on day one and then can these places sustain as the film has no music and the thriller genre which does not work well in many circuits. If the likes of Gujarat, CPCI work the film will be unstoppable.
Airlift Has Pretty Good Start Especially Big Cities Friday 22 January 2015 12.30 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Airlift has opened to pretty good collections of around 30-35% as multiplexes of cities opened well. The opening is better than last year’s Baby which was released in the same week last year and also starred Akshay Kumar. Airlift also had competition from Kyaa Kool Hain Hum 3 but should easily surpass the figures opening day numbers of Baby.
The opening is best in in the big cities. Both Delhi city and East Punjab should top 1 crore nett especially as evenings should be better as these films have do better on Friday evenings and there is huge multiplex presence in these areas. Mumbai city is decent but smaller cities of Maharashtra opened similar to Kyaa Kool Hain Hum 3, some were even lower.
Dilwale Has Strong Start Bajirao Mastani Slow Start Friday 18 December 2015 11.30 IST
Dilwale had a strong opening of around 65% while Bajirao Mastani was slower with a 30% start on average with the clash really only happening in multiplexes of Mumbai and Pune while the rest of the country saw a healthy advantage for Dilwale.
Dilwale had a very big lead in East Punjab, Nizam / Andhra, Mysore and East India while most other areas outside Mumbai and Pune had a good lead. The gap in above circuits was double and even more at some centres. It was certain properties of Mumbai and Pune where both films had similar occupancy. The key area Gujarat also saw Dilwale leading and it will important for Bajirao Mastani to close the gap in the evening if it is to have any chance of competing as without Gujarat the film can’t go anywhere.
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo Opens At Record Pace Thursday 12 November 2015 12.30 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo has opened at record pace and recorded a bumper opening of 70-75% on average across India. Its exactly a year since the word bumper came into play with Happy New Year and before that was Dhoom 3. It is a national holiday infact the biggest holiday of the year so the collections of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will hold in the range of 70-75% through the day.
The film has seen a record release of 4200 screens in Hindi. The ticket rates are at similar levels to Bajrangi Bhaijaan and PK and have not gone in for the extra premium which happens for the next event film. The sort of opening that the film has taken means it is certain to emerge with highest opening day ever.
The real target is to add around 15% to the Happy New Year total which released on the same day last year which means going over 40 crore nett and that is a stiffer task but chances are there. The best opening was extraordinary across though the nation though West Bengal was lacking mainly as the advance here was also weaker than other parts of the country. It will be the second day which will show where the film stands in the various circuits.
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo has also been released in Telugu and Tamil as Prem Leela and Meymarandhen Paaraayo respectively but the response here is lukewarm.
After gaining supreme popularity among the young crowd of India in 2011, the Pyaar ka Punchnama team is back again and this time only to attract at least 3 times more crowd to the theaters. The film has secured good buzz and all set for good opening across the board. Although it will face tough competition from Shaandaar from its second week onwards because even that film is attracting the similar crowd to theaters.
First Day – 6.5crs
If Word of Mouth is GOOD, Weekend – 24crs Week 1- 40crs Lifetime – 65crs
If word of mouth is MIXED, Weekend – 22crs Week 1- 33crs Lifetime – 42crs
If word of mouth is BAD, Weekend – 20.5crs Week 1- 30crs Lifetime – 35crs
Akshay Kumar’s 4th film of 2015, “Singh is Bling” is all set to release on 2nd Oct 2015 taking the advantage of national holiday. The film stars Amy Jackson, Lara Dutta, Kay kay Menon along with Akshay Kumar. The film is directed by Prabhudeva. Let’s predict the box office numbers:
Opening day – 21
If WOM is Good, Weekend – 47 Week 1- 70 Lifetime – 110
If WOM is Mixed, Weekend – 44 Week 1- 62 Lifetime – 82
If WOM is Bad, Weekend – 41 Week 1- 56 Lifetime – 70
Brothers Has Good To Decent Start Friday 14 August 2015 13.30 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Brothers opened to a good to decent response on day one with occupancies on average around the 35% mark. The opening is similar to Gabbar Is Back which opened on a mini holiday but this film is bigger than Gabbar Is Back in terms of budget so it should have opened better than it has.
The opening of the film is lower than ABCD 2 which has been the second biggest opening of the year so far after Bajrangi Bhaijaan. There is a one of the biggest holidays of the year tomorrow which will help collections in the evening especially the big cities so it may challenge the ABCD 2 first day number but the film really needs the first day to come in at around 17-18 crore nett and then get the huge benefit of the holiday and get that strong weekend of 60 crore nett plus.
This does not look like happening from the opening morning numbers meaning the film is depending on the evening advantage today and the big holiday tomorrow. Last year Singham Returns grossed 31.50 crore nett on Independence Day though it was day one for that film. For Brothers it is day two but still it has to be around 25 crore nett otherwise the film will find it tough going. Basically the opening is not bad but it should have been better.
Drishyam Has Very Poor Opening Friday 31 July 2015 13.30 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Drishyam had a very poor opening of 10-15% and us the lowest Ajay Devgn opener in recent times. Probably since Tezz in 2012. The opening is even lower than films like Piku and Hamari Adhuri Kahani as former was bit better in Mumbai city and latter was bit better in CPCI. Here the opening is bad across the board.
The collections on its first day are going to similar to the 15th day of Bajrangi Bhaijaan. In North India, Rajasthan and Bihar the collections of Bajrangi Bhaijaan were better. The film is totally dependent on wom and it has to kick in tomorrow and get growth of over 50% and a repeat on Sunday.
Drishyam had paid previews yesterday and grossed in the 50 lakhs nett range with low occupancies. The paid previews were there probably to help word of mouth to work faster but in reality it does not help much and it’d still going to be down to the Saturday numbers of the film. The film also has a very wide release of 2200 plus screens with content which probably does not need such a wide release.
Bajrangi Bhaijaan Opening Report – Excellent Friday 17 July 2015 12.00 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Bajrangi Bhaijaan has taken an excellent opening of 65-70% on average. Just like last year with Kick the start is extraordinary considering it is is Pre Eid. A big difference between Kick and Bajrangi Bhaijaan is that the former was an action film while latter is more of a social drama. Also the music of Kick was super hit which is not the case here which puts the draw of Salman Khan today into perspective.
The opening shows in the morning are also better than PK though that film did pick up later in the day but that was a normal day and today is day before Eid when most of the Muslim audience is busy with festivities.
The best opening has come in the Delhi NCR and East Punjab area with West Bengal being on lower side while South India has been affected by the film missing out on major single screens which normally play Hindi films due the mega success down South of Baahubali. Also Salman Khan is a much bigger draw in single screens of South India rather than the multiplexes which tend to support the urban Hindi films. Due to this loss of business anything around Kick first day would be a great result and if it was to go higher it would be extraordinary.
P.S. These are strictly based on ROI and WOM approximate calculations that I did. Anyone can disagree and feel free to do so. 1. Tevar (37crs) – Flop 2. Alone (19crs) – Average 3. Baby (81crs) – Above Average 4. Dolly ki Doli (14crs) – Flop 5. Hawaaizaada (4crs) – Disaster 6. Khaamoshiyan (10crs) – Below Average 7. Shamitabh (23crs) – Flop 8. Roy (37crs) – Flop 9. Badlapur (50crs) – Hit 10. Dum Laga ke Haisha (30crs) – Hit 11. NH10 (32crs) – Above Average 12. Hunterrrr (13crs) – Below Average 13. Detective Byomkesh Bakshy (26crs) – Below Average 14. Dharam Sankat mei (11crs) – Flop 15. Ek paheli leela (20crs) – Average 16. Mr.X (19crs) – Flop 17. Margarita with a straw (5crs) – Flop 18. Gabbar is Back (87crs) – Hit 19. Piku (77crs) – Hit 20. Bombay Velvet (23crs) – Disaster 21. Kuch kuch locha hain (3crs) – Flop 22. Tanu Weds manu returns (147crs **) – Blockbuster 23. Welcome to Karachi (9crs) – Flop 24. Dil Dhadakne Do (77crs **) – Above Average 25. Hamaari Adhuri Kahaani (32crs **) – Average 26. ABCD2 (105crs**) – Hit
** Indicates these films haven’t yet finished their run but will end up in that zone. Note – All numbers are taken from Boxofficeindia.com
The first part that released in February 2013, went on to do good business of close to 40crs. That film, without any face value, showed that there is enough love that people are ready to shower on dance films, if they are decently made. ABCD2 now is expected to have a huge start especially because of the star-heavy presence in form of Varun Dhawan and Shraddha Kapoor.
First day – 13crs
If word of mouth is Good, Weekend – 44crs First Week – 72crs Lifetime – 122crs
If Word of mouth is Mixed, Weekend – 42crs First Week – 65crs Lifetime – 93crs
If word of mouth is Bad, Weekend – 41crs First Week – 60crs Lifetime – 75crs
Note – The lifetime business can be higher or lower than the predicted numbers if the WOM is excellent or disastrous, which this predictions doesn’t take into consideration.
Dil Dhadakne Do Has Decent Start Friday 05 June 2015 12.00 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Dil Dhadakne Do had a decent start of around 25-30% at multiplexes with the premium ones being better. The single screens as expected were not good at 15-20%. The film was released on around 2300 screens. The film will grow in the evenings as it caters to that auduence.
The opening day numbers will come out good in the major metros and a few other cities where there are a number of premium multiplexes but the crunch will come on Saturday as a lot will depend on how they grow. The smaller centres will not support much but if cities like Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Lucknow can support it will be a big plus for the film.
The best opening came in the Delhi Ncr belt with multiplexes having good occupancies in Delhi city, Gurgaon and Noida.
2015 has got a big month in May where “Tanu Weds Manu Returns” and “Piku” surpassed the expectations at the Box Office and “Gabbar is Back” sustained well. Now comes the month of June which will see interesting films starting this June 5 with DIL DHADAKNE DO.
First day – 8.5crs
If word of mouth is GOOD, Weekend – 31crs Week 1- 50crs Week 2- 22crs Lifetime- 88crs
If Word of mouth is MIXED, Weekend – 28.5crs Week 1- 43crs Week 2- 10crs Lifetime – 57crs
If Word of mouth is BAD, Weekend – 27.5crs Week 1- 39crs Week 2- 6crs Lifetime – 46crs
P.S. – If the Word of mouth is on the extremes (Outstanding WOM or Terrible WOM) then the numbers might “swing” accordingly.
Ever since the first promo had hit the net, the film has caught people’s attention especially because of the interesting spin in the casting by having Kanagana in two roles. The first one had enjoyed good run in 2011 and did 39crs of business. The second instalment is all set for good start.
First day – 8crs
If WOM is Good, Weekend – 28.5crs Week 1- 45crs Week 2- 20crs Lifetime- 75crs
If WOM is Mixed, Weekend – 26.5crs Week 1- 41crs Week 2- 12crs Lifetime- 57crs
If WOM is Bad, Weekend – 25.5crs Week 1- 38crs Week 2- 7crs Lifetime – 47crs
Bombay Velvet Opens To Dull Collections Friday 15 May 2015 12.00 IST Box Office India Trade Network
Bombay Velvet had a dull opening all over as it opened to collections of 15-20%. For such a big film the opening is a disaster. The only thing going for the film was Ranbir Kapoor but it has not worked as the audience gas just not come. It is probably due to the presentation as the opening is less than Roy where he had an extended guest role.
The film should improve collections irrespective of content as they can’t go any lower but it’s unlikely the film can survive a setback like this.
The film has opened to poor figures in metros as well. You can’t really make an urban niche film costing over 100 crore as this sort of investment needs a 20 crore nett day one or at least 15 crore nett at worst but here the film has not even opened at 10 crore pace.