Box office predictions of Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son of Sardaar

Some background –

  • Screens/shows and advance booking
    I had expected JTHJ to maul SOS completely in multiplexes but that is not the case. Most places, they have the same number of shows and in some places, SOS is having more number of shows. This will badly affect the collections of JTHJ is multiplexes compared to other biggies.
    Also, I did not expect JTHJ to get a super response at SS. But, the response at SS has been amazing and the advance booking is superb. So, the film will collect bountiful at the SS.
    A big egg on the face of people who says SRK does not have SS pull or romance doesn’t sell in SS 🙂
    At this time, it is expected that JTHJ will get around 2700 screens and SOS will get around 1700.

  • What is the max capacity?
    Ek Tha Tiger did some 31 crores on its opening day with 3300 screens. JTHJ and SOS together will have a 4500 screen release. So, I believe the max capacity on a single day is 41-42 crores which will be tested on 14th November, the day after Diwali.

Now back to the numbers-

Assuming both movies have decent-to-good WOM:
Opening day – Due to Diwali Puja, collections will be affected in the evening and night shows. Total potential might be around 22-24 crores. JTHJ – 14 crores, SOS – 9 croes.
Diwali Day – Potential 41-42 crores. JTHJ – 24-25 crores, SOS = 15-16 crores
Thursday – Sunday – JTHJ 12+10+12+15 = 50 crores. SOS = 8+7+9+12 = 36 crores.
Opening 6 -days: JTHJ = 88-90 crores, SOS = 60-62 crores.
Opening week: JTHJ = 115-120 crores, SOS = 78-80 crores

2nd week: JTHJ = 28-30 crores, SOS = 20 crores
Lifetime: JTHJ = 150-160 crores, SOS = 105-108 crores

Now, if one movie has very bad WOM, it will have a huge impact as the audience has another option available.
If JTHJ is bad and SOS is good, lifetime: JTHJ = 115 crores, SOS = 120 cores
if JTJH is good and SOS is bad, JTHJ = 175 crores+, SOS = 80 crores.

For JTHJ to cross 175+, it will need excellent WOM. I think the max JTHJ can do is 175-180 crores which is more likely if SOS is rejected by the audience.

Cheers!

Tags:
41 Comments
  1. Reddemon 7 years ago

    The only case in which JTHJ will cross 150cr is if SOS is rejected and JTHJ has good WOM.
    I wonder what will happen if both the movies are rejected?

  2. FS 7 years ago

    Both Sos and JTHJ look like pathetic products. So the combined brand value should not exceed 185cr of ETT. If it does then the combined product value is bigger than ETT. So my prediction will be 100 for Jthj and 85 for Sos, +/-10cr 😛

    • Author
      narad_muni 7 years ago

      FS buddy,
      ETT was a pathetic product according to many..So, lets not talk about it.
      Time will tell whether your prediction was more accurate or mine 🙂

      • FS 7 years ago

        MY expectations in the beginning were JTHJ 140-150cr and SOS 80-120cr. But now i don’t have any expectations from both the movies and looking at the promos, trailers and pathetic war via media made me just predict the fate of these two movies.

        Both have 3 equally good songs, bichadan being my fav out of 6

  3. Baba Ji 7 years ago

    good prediction shilac.

    • Author
      narad_muni 7 years ago

      Thanks Baba Ji…
      I somehow have a feeling that SOS will work as it is based on a successful film..so, risk is less.
      JTHJ is risky particularly with that 3 hour length, audience might get bored.
      Fingers crossed and hoping for the best

  4. sauravjha 7 years ago

    I think both will work .17 days r enuf for any movie to collect handsomely even if its average in content. S i will go with JTHJ 130-140 and SOS around 100 crores. Rest if there r extreme rxns on either sides for both films collections can vary.

  5. mate 7 years ago

    IMO, JTHJ 1st week (10 days) = 140 cr, SOS 1st week (10 days) = 80 cr, If both have good WOM. The rest depends upon the repeat value.

  6. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Sputnik,
    Is it possible to attach a poll here regarding the box office collections of JTHJ and SOS with some ranges like
    JTHJ:
    <100
    100-120
    120-140
    140-160
    160-200
    >200

    SOS:
    <80
    80-100
    100-110
    110-120
    >120

    Would be good to know what people expect..

    • ramin 7 years ago

      jab tak hai jaan 6 day collection will cross 100crore dure to saturday and sunday and will do it at any way

  7. Aditya007 7 years ago

    JTHJ wont more than 130+cr product & Sos 90+cr !

  8. cr7 7 years ago

    good predictions shilac.

  9. bunty 7 years ago

    jthj
    1st day 14cr
    2nd day 26cr
    3rd day 15cr to 16cr :(bhai dooj)
    fri 10cr
    sat. 13.75cr
    sunday.18cr
    SOS
    1st day 8cr
    2nd 12cr
    3rd 8cr
    fri.6to7cr
    sat 8cr
    sun. 10cr

  10. rajesh 7 years ago

    My prediction JTHJ – 120 crs +
    SOS – 100 crs +

  11. Serenzy 7 years ago

    Nice Preds Shilac.

    I am Still Sticking to My 120cr for JTHJ and 95-100cr for SOS.

    The Subsequent WOM aftr the 1st Three Days will Increase/Decrease the Collections of Respective Movies.

    • Author
      narad_muni 7 years ago

      Champu,

      I told u to be more optimistic dude. When will u listen? 🙂

      The numbers you are predicting is possible if JTHJ was bad WOM and SOS has decent WOM.
      SOS won’t cross 100 crores unless the WOM is good.

  12. fearedsoul 7 years ago

    Have no clue what a movie will make nowadays as last 2 years have been totally all over the place – i guess one can safely say that JTHJ makes about 150cr – as it will be a decent product – yash chopra hasnt made a BAD movie so far – so why now…

    Now I watched Bol Bachchan and loved the movie – but for a entertaining movie like that Ajay squeaked out 100cr. I see it very difficult for SoS to get anywhere close to that given the competition this time. Ajay Devgan is not a big crowd puller – the only way SOS makes 100 cr is if JTHJ is a dud like Ra-1 – which i seriously doubt. So my guess here – SOS 80cr thanks mainly to a great first week, JTHJ 150cr

  13. Serenzy 7 years ago

    Bol Bachchan & Rowdy Rathore were Really 2 Surprise Entertainers this Year…
    Loved them both!

    • Author
      narad_muni 7 years ago

      Yes, Both BB and RR are good entertainers…I was pleasantly surprised by BB. Nice, clean entertainer

  14. sputnik 7 years ago

    Diwali Releases Advance Report: Jab Tak Hai Jaan Leads

    Jab Tak Hai Jaan leads in the advance bookings over Son Of Sardaar. It was always going to lead in terms of number of tickets sold before release simply because there are far more tickets available due to much wider release. But in terms of percentage of tickets sold at a theatre it is leading almost across the board.

    The gap is less in the North with some multiplexes on par while Jab Tak Hai Jaan having 5-10% lead in others but in places like Hyderabad and Pune there is a big difference with Jab Tak Hai Jaan leading by a margin.

    The biggest problem for Son Of Sardaar is that in centres where it would have given Jab Tak Hai Jaan a run for its money it does not have the screens as Jab Tak Hai Jaan has cornered 90% of the big collecting single screens in Delhi city, UP, Rajasthan and CI. The battle is likely to be closest in East Punjab as single screens have a low contribution in the circuit but even here as there are a lot of premium multiplexes so Jab Tak Hain Jaan should come out ahead but with a smaller gap than the rest of India.

    Still both films are looking at a strong opening though the first day will be up and down due to Diwali festivities but on day two both films will go to capacity houses or near capacity houses.

    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/boxnewsdetail.php?page=shownews&articleid=5073&nCat=

  15. mate 7 years ago

    Diwali Clashes: The Screen Count Factor

    There has been a major controversy this year regarding the availability of screens but this has been the case nearly every year where one film gets the edge in terms of screens.
    The possible difference this year being they were booked well in advance by Jab Tak Hai Jaan distributors which fuelled the controversy while in the past bookings were made closer to release time. The other important factors being much wider releases today and the number of screens gaining more importance as business is all about the first week. It is important to get the screens whether you get them 3 months prior to release or 6 months, its a must to have them.

    Read the rest in the following link:
    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/boxnewsdetail.php?page=shownews&articleid=5074&nCat=

  16. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Sputnik,
    As far as I can see, even in the north, JTHJ is leading by a clear margin in the order of 20% at least.
    Yes, relatively the lead is less…For example, in South or East India, it is a one-horse race.

    In Bangalore, Rex Theatre was the only single screen I guess which was planning to show SOS.
    But, after zero response to the advance booking, they have replaced SOS with JTHJ…
    Same is the case in Kolkata where SOS have been wiped off totally from the Single screens.

    SOS now has to rely mainly on North and Central India to some extent or it has to pray that JTHJ turns to be a really bad film.
    I still feel the clash could have been avoided if people would have let go their egos.
    Each movie would have the potential to do much more business than what they will do now.
    SOS stands to lose more but JTHJ has also lost lot of screens and shows in the multiplexes.

    Hope both the movies turn out to be big box office hits and the cinema lovers have a cracking Diwali.

  17. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Sputnik,
    On a different note, just noticed that this post already got 1100+ views.
    Tanqeed has definitely become popular. 🙂

    Great going!

    • sputnik 7 years ago

      I think its got to do more with the post. People are interested in Boxoffice of big movies more than the movie itself 😀

      • Author
        narad_muni 7 years ago

        Yep, that might be true 🙂
        But, I remember – when I used to write this kind of posts earlier, it struggled to get past 300-400 views.

  18. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Some more update on advance booking numbers from BOXOFFICECAPSULE. Take this numbers with a pinch of salt but looks to be more or less accurate.

    Territory

    JTHJ (in %)

    SOS (in %)

    Gujarat

    55

    45

    Rajasthan

    45

    40

    Mumbai

    65

    25

    Delhi/NCR

    45

    30

    West Bengal

    75

    15

    Bangalore

    65

    25

    Bihar

    25

    15

    CI & CP

    35

    20

    Nizam

    35

    15

    Source

  19. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Ok guyz,

    time to revive this thread.
    Now that both movies have releases, it is clear that none of the movies are really outstanding,
    The WOM it seems can be called as mixed, or may be a tad on the negative side.

    So, as per my predictions, based on average/below average WOM,
    The final predictions would be 120-125 crores for JTHJ and 85-90 crores for SOS.

    Would be interested to know what u all think

    • Shinji 7 years ago

      Dont u think that is on the lower side?

      Btw when does wom actually kick in?

    • Ritz 7 years ago

      Do you really what to know what I think? 😛

    • fearedsoul 7 years ago

      shilac – i think for SOS the WOM is mixed and reviews are negative – for JTHJ the reviews are good but WOM is mixed. I think you have too high a number for SOS – my prediction is 65-75cr for SOS and 130-150cr for JTHJ

      Will wait and see though – if either movie makes more – that says something about the movie tastes of the indian public. We will end up having more slapstick comedies and mushy looong romances

  20. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Final picture will be clear by Thursday-Friday.
    Till then it is anyone’s guess.

    One thing is ruled out – The movie wont break any records….At this point, max looks like 150 crores.

  21. sputnik 7 years ago

    Will Shahrukh Khan And Ajay Devgn Beat Their Diwali Bests?

    The last Diwali’s have been dominated by Shahrukh Khan with Ra.One in 2011 and Ajay Devgn with Golmaal 3 in 2010.

    This year has seen both Shahrukh Khan and Ajay Devgn come on Diwali day and the early collections suggest both actors will record similar opening day figures that they had when they last came on Diwali.

    Ra.One grossed around 14.50 crore nett in 2011 and Golmaal 3 grossed around 8 crore nett in 2010

    Despite both films starting strongly collections took a dip from afternoon onwards due to Diwali and it is looking a 14 crore nett range for Jab Tak Hai Jaan and around 8 crore nett for Son Of Sardaar with a possible 10% up or down movement depending on late evening and night shows.

    South India with limited Diwali affect could push Jab Tak hai Jaan if circuits like Mysore and Nizam are at record pace.

    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/boxnewsdetail.php?page=shownews&articleid=5081&nCat=

  22. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Sputnik,
    I was bang on with my predictions for day one 😀

  23. Tulmul 7 years ago

    ‏@bollywoodajjtak

    All India Early estimation First Day #JTHJ 14-14.50C and #SOS 8.50-9.0C 🙂

    • Author
      narad_muni 7 years ago

      tulmul bhai,
      happy Diwali!
      So, you too part of the box office madness?

  24. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Sputnik,
    Should I create separate thread for Boxoffice collections?
    Or, should we continue to post here?
    In that case, we can modify the title of the post.

    Let me know..

    • sputnik 7 years ago

      Yes lets have separate posts for the BO collections.

      • Author
        narad_muni 7 years ago

        But I would like to have a single thread for BO collections of JTHJ and SOS…
        And if possible, make it sticky till Sunday.
        As you can see, BO has lot of takers 🙂

  25. Quadir 7 years ago

    I m big fan of srk n jthj is more than a avg. movie
    srk kat romance is realy awesome .
    jthj total collection will be 120-140 cr
    sos total collection will be
    70 -90 cr

  26. Author
    narad_muni 7 years ago

    Request everyone to continue discussions about box office in the following thread.

    LINK TO BOX OFFICE COLLECTIONS THREAD

  27. Reddemon 6 years ago

    None of the predictions were right 🙁
    Still to find someone who has Predicted the true actual collections of Ra.one, Don2 and JTHJ in advance 😆

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published.

Log in with your credentials

or    

Forgot your details?

Create Account