Some Box Office stuff

Despite freezing fingers and a temporary Internet shutdown here at IIT, I would like to write a bit about the box office of Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son of Sardaar. I’ll be taking only Box Office India numbers since I do not trust the numbers of other sources. Also, box office numbers will be rounded off, wherever necessary, for easier calculation.

Let’s compare this Diwali with last Diwali – a.k.a Ra.One.

Ra.One released on 3,000 screens and grossed 15 crores on its first day, followed by a 23 crore haul on its second day. By most estimates, the total release size of the two 2012 Diwali releases is 4,200 screens (the exact break-up is still under a bit of dispute). So, ideally inflating Ra.One‘s first day as per screen count increase :-

2012 Ra.One first day = (4200/3000)*(15) = 21 crores.

2012 Ra.One second day = (4200/3000)*(23) = 32 crores.

Now, the combined first day of 2012’s Diwali is 12.5 + 8.5 crores = 21 crores. This means that the combination has equalled last year’s Diwali, which is no mean feat considering the amount of hype Ra.One was riding. However, the performance could have been a bit better – 22 crores would have been great.

As per latest reports, the combined second day is 19.5 + 14.5 = 34 crores. This shows that day-to-day business this year has grown quite a bit compared to last year. So this Diwali is, by all counts, a major success. But the more important question is :- what is the status of the individual films?

JAB TAK HAI JAAN

Let’s take the screen count of 2,600 for Jab Tak Hai Jaan (estimates may vary by a 100). So, again idealising Ra.One from last year :-

Ideal first day = (2600/3000)*(15) = 13 crores.

The actual first day came out slightly lower than this. While this may be attributed to slightly lesser hype and competition, the fact is that Jab Tak Hai Jaan could have done better, especially since the above calculations are considering reduced screen space. A 14 crores first day would have been excellent.

Ideal second day = (2600/3000)*(23) = 20 crores.

Jab Tak Hai Jaan has again missed the mark by a very small amount. The verdict is retained as per above. A 21.5 – 22 crores second day would have been perfect.

The rise in collections of Ra.One from Day 1 to Day 2 is ((23-15)/15)*100 = 53%. For Jab Tak Hai Jaan, the rise in collections is ((19.5-12.5)/12.5)*100 = 56%. So Jab Tak Hai Jaan has actually shown an improved theatrical response in terms of its growth.

SON OF SARDAAR

Let’s take the screen count of 1,600 for Son of Sardaar (estimates may vary by a 100). So, again idealising Ra.One from last year :-

Ideal first day = (1600/3000)*(15) = 8ย crores.

The actual first day came out slightly higher than this. While the film could certainly have done a bit better, it is – by all means – in an adequate position. A 9 – 9.5 crores first day would have been the best case.

Ideal second day = (1600/3000)*(23) = 12.5ย crores.

Son of Sardaar has improved significantly over this figure; in fact, what it has earned is excellent, just perfect for the film.

The rise in collections of Ra.One from Day 1 to Day 2 wasย 53%. For Son of Sardaar, the rise in collections is ((14.5-8.5)/8.5)*100 = 70%. That’s a major theatrical improvement in terms of growth.

So what do all these numbers finally add up to? Both films are improving on their collections at a better rate than Ra.One last year. But on the one hand, Jab Tak Hai Jaan is just touching the needed collections while Son of Sardaar is outdoing them in varying degrees. The higher collections and good growth of the former is clashing with the better growth of the latter, creating a terrific dilemma as to which will run longer.

In such comparisons, a hundred and one factors influence the longevity and future of the film – its genre, the response (both public and audience) etc. It is also very unwise to write the verdicts of films by seeing only their first two days (the best example of this mistake being made was in this year’s Agneepath, which suffered a 50% Day 1-to-Day 2 drop and yet became a major hit). So the third day will give us a clearer picture.

Both films are excepted to drop on their third day, similar to Ra.One (this is also the last day that we can compare this Diwali to last Diwali, as Ra.One‘s fourth day was a non-working Saturday while 2012’s Diwali’s fourth day is a working Friday). Ra.One made 16 crores on its third day, meaning a drop of ((23-16)/23)*100 = 30%. Taking slightly improved levels (25% for both films, just as an idealistic prediction) and considering the decent word-of-mouth, we get :-

Jab Tak Hai Jaan = 19.5 – (25/100)*(19.5) = 15 crores.

Son of Sardaar = 14.5 – (25/100)*(14.5) = 11 crores.

I would add a crore to Son of Sardaar due to its significant day-to-day increase. That makes 15 crores for Jab Tak Hai Jaan and 12 crores for Son of Sardaar. Let’s see how the box office plays out!

Do give your thoughts about my analysis in the comments section below.

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40 Comments
  1. Baba Ji 7 years ago

    is this supposed to be a joke?

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      Any particular reason why you ask?

      • Baba Ji 7 years ago

        the no of shows of ra1 and jthj are not same. same for sos.You are taking only no of screens and calculating/equating per day gross for films having a gap of an year! Time Value of Money ka naam suna hai?

  2. Shinji 7 years ago

    Coool Stuff..

    IMO If SOS had released with full strenght and equity with JTHJ it would have equalled JTHJ’s collection.

    Anyways, worst thing here is JTHJ doesnt seem to carrying a good wom ( at my end it’s not that great on facebook, relatives ) i have found thumbs down type reviews… and tooo long is the problem.

    SOS, i will be frank has also been crucified, but people are saying go for fun and u wont be disappointed.

    I feel expectation from Yash Chopra Movie was more. Lets wait and watch.

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      Well the wom is decent to good. Its not great or earth-shattering. Expect bit-better-than ordinary holds throughout the lifetime.

  3. sanjeev-dabangg2-beats-ETT 7 years ago

    bro how about ticket prices? Are they same from last diwali and this diwali?
    in my opinion footfalls for this diwali has gone down from last diwali if you take ticket prices into account.

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      Ticket prices haven’t increased so much this time; this can be attributed to the fact that there was no undue “recover the distribution prices” pressure. Last year ticket prices had to be raised because the distribution prices were very high (not to mention the hype the film created).

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      And besides, footfalls don’t matter that much today. Its all about the money.

  4. Serenzy 7 years ago

    Cool Post.. Nothing Much to Add as I am Personally More Interested in Weekends, Trending, WOM and Lifetime Nett.

    ……..

    I wud Like to Note that I Belive, Krrish3 if Released SOLO on Next Diwali than with Good Hype/Buzz, it can do ~25cr Opening Day Inspite of Diwali Puja.

  5. Aditya007 7 years ago

    Hmmm Good Assumptions -:)
    JTHJ-14.5+19cr =31.5cr
    SoS- 8.5+14.5=23cr

    Btw If JTHJ solo released than It doesn’t collect more than 19+cr sure May be even less !!

  6. stewie griffin 7 years ago

    now imagine ek tha tiger with 4000 screens

  7. TopShot 7 years ago

    At my end within my friend circle WOm is not at all good for JTHJ… While SOS is also ridiculed but fact that SOS was meant to be a mad comic caper n not logical masterpiece hence WOM would affect it lesser. While in case of JTHJ, yash chopra sympathy factor helped the film initially but ‘this-is-so-unlike-yashji feeling/reaction gonna hurt the film in long run.

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      In my circle, WOM is positive (surprisingly so, since several of my friends really hate SRK). See, what maters is majority opinion; small-scale comparisons are futile.

      SOS is also being liked by some circles and disliked by others. Does that mean WOM is negative? Of course not.

      • sauravjha 7 years ago

        Exactly bro! U r damn rite abt both movies! Both r being loved by ppl whom it was always expected that they will like them.

  8. Author
    Jasper 7 years ago

    So my third day predictions were close for SOS and slightly off for JTHJ. Hmmm.

    JTHJ’s Day 2-to-Day 3 drop is ((19.5-13.5)/19.5)*100 = 31%.

    SOS’s Day 2-to-Day 3 drop is ((14.5-11.5)/14.5)*100 = 21%.

  9. prince 7 years ago

    JTHJ has collected more than 19 crores in three days overseas market.
    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/boxnewsdetail.php?page=shownews&articleid=5103&nCat

  10. mate 7 years ago

    Yes, their actual numbers are in the same range as their estimates. Btw I like BOI way of giving BO numbers, first by giving estimates and then territorial breakdown of three days collectively, very neat and authentic from the beginning. Instead Komal and Taran make an amalgamation of the figures by giving producer’s numbers for first few days, and after that it seems they are unable to decide which way to go. Sahi kaha he kisi ne ‘Dhobi ka kutta na ghar ka na ghat ka.” ๐Ÿ˜€

  11. Shinji 7 years ago

    I am assuming JBHJ is liked by its own audience, finding its feet there. I am assuming that it will continue this trending and with bit optimism it will make 120-140 cr. So:

    If assuming both movies are liked by the audience they were supposed to be like than i have some questions

    1) Does that mean if JTHJ end up around 140 cr, that is the only audience a SRK film has now ? Last year Ra.one was around 120 if i am not wrong ? Is that it?

    2) Does that mean opposition or no opposition SRK movie can’t go beyond 200 unless he makes something terrific out of the world ?

    3) Does that mean how come there be huge difference such big as 60 cr between ETT and JTHJ… as both are from same production house, i guess JTHJ is more classical, romantic stuff…. how come this big difference, as imo ETT was average too?

    4) ETT was not that great a movie, imo, just like JTHJ, still it managed 200 cr approx it perplexes.

    5) DID SOS damaged JTHJ or otherwise… or there was collateral damage…. because Ra.one was released single handedly last year and went only till 100-120 cr. ( i also feel Ra.one performance must hve encouraged Devgn to go ahead with SOS )

    6) What does this means for Dabanng 2 ?

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      Yes, JTHJ is being loved by its target (romantic) audience, but we have to see the whole picture as well. The film will sustain though not like 3 Idiots (duh).

      Btw so many questions! You are very inquisitive. ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜›

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      Okay answers :-

      1) No. An SRK romance has a maximum limit of say 130-140 crores. If SRK makes a film in a more crowd-pleasing genre, the limit will increase.

      2) Your question can’t be answered solidly; 200 crores of business is dependent on a lot of factors, and often it may come through luck.

      3) ETT is of a different genre; it had a lot of action which is in vogue right now (JTHJ had just one action sequence which wasn’t really death-defying). Plus, JTHJ was much longer that ETT, resulting in less shows.

      4) ETT did not do 200 crores, it did 190 crores. Second, there is no reason for perplexity; see above answer.

      5) There must have been damage to both films’ collections due to the clash, and this has been the only sure thing in the box office. The collateral damage of Ra.One was nullified by Don 2.

      6) Asking about the effect of JTHJ on Dabangg 2 is like asking the effect of the wind on the taste of my food. There is no relation; the comparison is bad, since the genres are so different and Dabangg 2 is a sequel to a major blockbuster.

      • Shinji 7 years ago

        Well counters are as follows:

        1) I guess romance is equally crowd pleasing, the problem is SRK movies are not turning out to become well made movie, satisdyung his fan base but overall duds. Having a maximum limit of 130-140, would that even apply to a good made movie? as i understand if they had made it more logical, and plausible and edited properly it might have been a 180 kind of a deal.

        Also barfi made 100 crore in a romantic autistic movie, and if JTHJ only does 20-30 more explains that movie being bad was a factor in collection or else i did expect SRK good movie to touch 200… just a theory.

        2) not much to add over there.

        3) ETT had ok action sequences, i found most of them boring, but kinda agree there with you. But in this case as i sadi Barfee made 100, in austistic romantic love triangle. it touched hearts and if it can make 100 with a lesser BO potential of Ranbir, surely SRK can touch 180 atleast with a good made.

        4) 200 or 190 is same in context.. nothing much to add there.

        5) Collateral damage was in reference to SOS.

        6) didnt ask for effect, i asked what it meant… i am assuming it means Dabanng 2 just has to turn but be a reasonable entertainer and get 150… and it will all make all the competition so stupid…

      • Baba Ji 7 years ago

        “An SRK romance has a maximum limit of say 130-140 crores”

        when his action films like ra1,don2 came and underperformed, fans said this is not his strong genre, romance is. Then came jthj. If this is srks limit in his strongest genre, then you are indirectly saying srk is now out of top 5.

        • Author
          Jasper 7 years ago

          If he makes a masala film (which he hasn’t for some time, something like OSO maybe? :D) then who knows? And masala basically means a mix of all genres, so romance will be there.

          And SRK is not out of top 5. Of course, you may pray and hope for that, but its not true.

          • Baba Ji 7 years ago

            “If he makes a masala film ”

            Come again? was ra1 an art film?

          • shan 7 years ago

            Interesting responses. My 2 cents.

            SRK’s last 5 films – JTHJ, Don 2, Ra.One, My Name is Khan and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi have all underperformed (too early to say for JTHJ but doesnt seem like it will cross 150 cr). This means :

            1. SRK in any romantic movie is not enough to earn 100+ crores. The movie has to be well-made with other favorable factors like popular music, strong supporting cast etc.

            2. SRK in any action movie is not enough to earn 120+ crores. The movie has to be well-made
            .
            3. SRK in a masala movie may make 180+ crores but we will have to wait for Chennai Express to validate. His last masala outing made 90 crores a full year after Dhoom 2 in similar genre made 86 crores.

            I hate to do this but compare this with a mediocre actor like Salman.

            1. Salman in a terribly made movie like Bodyguard can manage 140 crores due to what? Good acting – no; good direction – no; great script – no; popular music – yes to an extent, action – maybe, but note this same action is considered over-the-top and it cannot carry similar movies like Singham beyond 100 cr.

            2. Salman in an average comedy like Ready or an above average actioner like Dabangg can manage 120+ crores, why? Good director – hardly; great script – no; popular actresses – no; good music – yes, action – maybe.

            3. Salman in a not-his-type sophisticated but slow snoozefest like Ek Tha Tiger can manage 185 crores, why? Good direction – no; good music – no; great performances – no; good script – no.

            What does this tell you? Salman can pull crowds even to bad movies while SRK needs a good movie to pull as much crowd. It wouldnt be too unfair to say Salman is enjoying a lot more star-pull than SRK currently. Note I said currently, so dont ask me where was Salman’s star power during Main aur Mrs Khanna etc. He earned audience confidence with Dabangg and that has carried him through till now. Of course, the confidence will fade soon unless he reinvents and comes back with a bang. SRK however has tried many different genres – social, romance, action, sci-fi and has not managed to convince as many people to watch his movies.

  12. Shinji 7 years ago

    @shan

    this is what i have been trying to understand, it defies logic… but yup this is Bollywood… anything can happen.. but if this goes on, Salman Would end up over and above both Aamir and SRK.

    Atleast Aamir might have a good shelter in being different and iconic movies, it hurts SRK a lot.

  13. Baba Ji 7 years ago

    shan – the stardom narrative of all three khans are very different. salman is liked in script less films that is all about his worship.His veer or MAMK will not work today also.

  14. Serenzy 7 years ago

    People Saying SRK isn’t doing Masala shud get a Realiy Check.

    RA.One was as Masala as it Can Get like ‘The Avengers’.

    Song, Dance, Action, Emotional Drama, SRK Type Chutya Comedy.

    Shan,
    Of the 5Movies you Mentioned, Please Exclude RNBDJ from that list bcz On a BO Level it has Performed Beyond Excellence doing 87cr just bfr Ghajini came Blasting in.

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      I would also exclude Don 2 from the list; it hardly underperformed considering the very select multiplex demographics it was targeting.

      • shan 7 years ago

        JTW : But Don 2 was not too different from Ek Tha Tiger. Both were slow, boring, lacked humor, were too sophisticated for the SS audience, had poor music, some good action scenes, released during holiday season and yet ETT made 180+. In fact Don 2 had the advantage of being the sequel of a well-liked film, but it also had the disadvatnage of SRK’s previous film – Ra.One, so I’ll exclude that as a factor. Honestly, I feel all this talk about Don 2 being targeted at a very select multiplex demographic is BS. Sure nobody expected Don 2 to work wonders in Bihar but it was an action film and had a lot of potential to make money, as shown by ETT 8 months later. It wasnt a very bad film as compared to ETT either. The only difference was the star pull IMO.

  15. shan 7 years ago

    @Scholes : Anything that defies logic is defined as a phenomenon. Salman is a phenomenon today and has been one since Dabangg. When he will cease to e one, only time will tell (although the average Dabangg 2 promo and uncertainties about his forthcoming lineup suggest it might be soon).

    Agree on Aamir. He is one actor who has in most cases picked the right scripts – scripts which lead to movies that will be remembered irrespective of the BO fate of the movies. Of course there are exceptions to this rule in the form of Fanaa and Mangal Pandey. But overall, he has chosen well.

    @Babaji : Agree on MAMK but not too sure about Veer. MAMK was a very weak film and Salman was not in the avatar people are okay seeing him in in it. MAMK would have flopped with any actor in Salman’s role. Veer on the other hand was a jingoistic period drama that unfortunately came before the The Big Dabangg . Yes, Veer was no masterpiece, it was overlong and had terrible supporting actors. But it also had good action, a semi-coherent revenge story and Salman in fine form. Had it come later, it would have grossed around 70-80 cr even if it had been rejected. Because of its release at a time Salman was yet to gain confidence among paying public, most people except his loyal following in Rajasthan stayed away.

    @Serenzy : Ya RNBDJ did better than the other 4 in terms of expectations. Nevertheless, considering the fact that it was Adi Chopra’s comeback movie, I feel it could have done more and the Ghajini juggernaut hit it hard. Magar reason kuch bhi ho, the fact that it couldnt sustain beyond 2 weeks says something about SRK’s pull doesnt it? The least we can say is Aamir in a never-before avatar proved to be too much for SRK in a never-before avatar.

    • Author
      Jasper 7 years ago

      SRK in RNBDJ was not really in a “never-seen-before” avatar; his Raj was one very familiar character. Yes, Suri was a breath of fresh air, and arguably the best thing of the film.

      • shan 7 years ago

        JTW : Dude, I am referring to Suri and not Raj. Raj was pathetic in RNBDJ. And similarly, in Ghajini Aamir had 2 avatars, the revenge seeker was the never seen before one. The other one we have seen him do umpteen times. Point remains that Aamir in never before beat SRK in never before avatar hands down. 100s of excuses can be given as to why, but wont change the fact.

        And no, I am not trying to say SRK is any less of an actor. He is mind-blowing in intense scenes. All this talk is just about BO pull. So dont take this personally or as anti-SRK ๐Ÿ™‚

    • kabir 7 years ago

      Good comments Shan :). After dismal period of 3 years(2006-08) Salman Khan’s comeback has been like a dream run of every actor. Back to back Blockbusters. Even Crap films like BG and Ready became Blockbusters.No other big star of this generation has achieved this feat of back to back blockbusters and for salman it still doesn’t seem to be end at least in the near future .
      And i would say MAMK would still flop very badly irrespective of which actor it has or when it is released.
      Also i felt Salman was hardly there in the whole film. Sohail Khan was more of a lead actor in MAMK. So it would fail anyway.
      And agree about Veer that it would have done far better than it did if released today.
      As for SRK he would need genuinely very good film now something like CDI or 3i to make his films Blockbuster.

      • shan 7 years ago

        Thanks and agree ๐Ÿ™‚ I am hoping Rohit Shetty can change SRK’s fortunes around – he’s a good actor and needs to be around for a few more yrs to add variety to the type of films coming out of Bollywood. As far as Happy New Year is concerned, bhagwan hi maalik hai!

  16. Author
    Jasper 7 years ago

    @Baba

    Ra.One was a Badly-made film with a capital B. I mean a well-made masala film.

    • shan 7 years ago

      Amen to that! But it was a badly made masala film ๐Ÿ™‚ In fact, it was one of those few movies that SRK promoted as “Isme sab kuch hai – action, drama, romance, family relationships, comedy, sci-fi”. Are you refuting SRK’s claim that it was a masala film? ๐Ÿ™‚

      And if you insist it was a well-made masala film as stated in your comment above, why then did it not make more money? It had no opposition, it was released during holidays, it had a free run for 2 weeks at least and it starred SRK, who was coming to screen after 1.5 yrs. Why did his well-made masala film not make 140 cr that an admittedly better Dabangg made 1 year before and an arguably worse Bodyguard made 3 months before?

      • Author
        Jasper 7 years ago

        I never said Ra.One was a well-made masala film!

        And besides, SRK’s masala films will be different from Salman’s masala films. Not sure how but that’s what I have noticed.

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