DON 2 : the complete BO analysis

Hi All,

This is my first post on this forum. Let me introduce myself – I am a SRK fan but not a   fanatic. I have been always interested in BO as I am fascinated about numbers.

Now, it is very clear that DON 2 is a CLEAN HIT for SRK, a much needed one. It has been 3 years since SRK had given a big hit (particularly in India) – his last one was RNBDJ.

Now, the question is – how big a HIT is DON 2? Let us see.

There are 2 ways of looking at BO – one is the profit to the distributor considering all sources of revenues and the other one is based on the theatrical business.

I prefer the second approach as it gives the clear picture of how well the movie has been received by the audience.

DON 2 domestic business

DON2 had a weekend of 45.5 crores and added another 26 crores in the weekdays taking its total to almost 72 crores. The movie is doing phenomenal business in multiplexes of big cities whereas Single screens and mass centres are under-performing hugely. Considering that, the weekdays’ business is indeed very good as the weekdays’ business is mainly driven by SS. Considering the regional versions, it did a total business of 75 crores.

Prediction for second weekend – I expect a bumper second weekend due to the good WOM and the new year holidays. Friday – 5.5-6cr Saturday – 6.5-7 Cr, Sunday8-9Cr.Overall,20-22Cr and 2nd week will be around 30-32Cr.

Lifetime prediction – 110-115 Cr for Hindi version. If Players is not well received, it can cross 120 crores.

DON 2 – Overseas business.

Don 2 did a business of 7M till the weekend and did 9.7M for the whole week. It is already one of the biggest hits overseas a clear ATBB. What is incredible is the movie added 2.7M in the Monday-Thruday period, which indicates a huge second weekend and a good long run. I expect DON 2 to do around 2.5 to 3M in the second weekend which will take it to 12M+. Just for reference, the biggest grossers overseas – 3Idiots and MNIK – had done around 65-70 Cr in the first phase of release from the major markets. DON 2 looks all set to equal or cross that (It is no doubt being helped by the favorable $-to-rupee conversion but it is a Huge achievement in itself). I expect DON 2 to do a similar business of 14M = 72 crores overseas from the 1st phase of its release. It will be released later in 42 countries and we have to see whether it can touch the magical figure of 100 Cr overseas.

So, overall the worldwide gross of DON 2 is expected to be 160 Cr from India (assuming 115 Cr India net and 0.72 conversion factor ) and 72 Cr overseas resulting in 230+ Cr overseas gross which might make it the biggest worldwide grosser for 2011 (overtaking BodyGuard at 227 Cr) and the 2nd biggest grosser ever after 3 Idiots.

Speaking from the financial/ROI angle, total cost to Reliance=105 Cr out of which 45 Cr is recovered from music+television rights etc. So, worldwide distributor share required for recovery is 60 Cr. Assuming 115 Cr India and 70 Cr overseas, the DS will be  around 60 Cr and 32 Cr respectively totalling 92 Cr which means a cool 32 Cr profit for Reliance.

So, looking from various perspectives, DON 2 is a huge hit for SRK and brings him right on track to fight for the top slot. I don’t know whether to call it HIT/SUPERHIT/BLOCKBUSTER, that is something for the trade analysts to figure out.

Meanwhile, SRK fans can rejoice and raise a toast to the super success of DON 2. The KING IS TRULY BACK!.

Cheers.