Here are my 2014 Oscar Predictions. This year instead of just predicting the winner in each category I am breaking it down into who I want to win, who I think will win and whose win would be a upset or completely stupid.
American Hustle, Philomena and Captain Phillips are there just to make the numbers. I don’t think they have any real chance of winning. The Wolf of Wall Street doesn’t deserve to be even nominated and it will be a big upset if it does. Her though good has a very long shot at winning the Best Picture. I want Dallas Buyers Club to win but I don’t think it will. Nebraska would also be a deserving winner but don’t think its going to win either. Its a shame that Rush has not even been nominated. Gravity does not deserve to win but there are chances that it could. Its going to be 12 Years a Slave which is going to win because the subject and the movie is something that the Academy cannot afford to not award the Best Picture to.
Jean-Marc Vallée who directed Dallas Buyers Club and Ron Howard who directed the excellent Rush have not even been nominated. David O. Russell did not even deserve to be nominated and I don’t think he has any chance of winning. Martin Scorsese has been nominated more because of his past record and since he was already awarded Best Director for The Departed in 2006 his winning this year will be a big upset. I want Alexander Payne to win for the excellently directed Nebraska but I don’t think he will. So it comes down to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity and Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. I think the Academy will award Best Director to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity but they could decide to go with Steve McQueen for Best Directing too just like they did with The King’s Speech a few years back.
Matthew McConaughey is the clear favorite and the one who deserves to win the Best Actor for Dallas Buyer’s Club. Anyone else winning will be a major upset. He was excellent as the homophobic guy who gets AIDS and who starts to smuggle and sell unapproved drugs. Christian Bale did not even deserve a nomination for American Hustle. Bruce Dern was excellent in Nebraska and the second best performance of the year after Matthew McConaughey and he would win only if the Academy decide to award it as a Lifetime Achievement Award. Leonardo DiCaprio does not deserve to win for The Wolf of Wall Street and it would be really stupid if he does. Chiwetel Ejiofor was ok in 12 Years a Slave and he does not deserve to win. If he does it will be that more of the subject and role taking precedence over the actual performance.
Cate Blanchett is the clear favorite and the one who is going to win for her excellent performance in Blue Jasmine. Meryl Streep was excellent in August: Osage County as she always is but don’t think they are going to award her again. Amy Adams has no chance of winning for American Hustle. Sandra Bullock being even nominated for Gravity is a joke. Judi Dench while good doesn’t deserve to win for Philomena.
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto is the clear favorite and the one who deserves to win for his excellent performance as the transgendered Rayon in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Michael Fassbender was excellent in 12 Years a Slave and the second best performance of the year in the Supporting Actor category and there is a good chance that he might win. Barkhad Abdi was good in Captain Phillips but don’t think he has any chance of winning for his first nomination. Bradley Cooper has no chance of winning for American Hustle either. James Gandolfini while good in Enough Said has been nominated just because of his death. Jonah Hill should not even have been nominated for his horrible over the top performance for The Wolf of Wall Street. Daniel Bruhl’s performance in Rush was the third best performance of the year after Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender but he was not even nominated.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o deserves to win the Best Supporting Actress for her excellent performance in 12 Years a Slave and I think she is going to win. Jennifer Lawrence was very good in American Hustle but her performance in parts was a repeat of her Oscar winning performance from Silver Linings Playbook. And its too soon for the Academy to award her again. Julia Roberts was very good in August: Osage County but don’t think she is going to win. June Squibb was very good in Nebraska but don’t think she is going to win either. Sally Hawkins getting nominated for Blue Jasmine itself is a big thing and I don’t think she deserves to win.
Best Original screenplay
Spike Jonze is the one who deserves to win the Best Original Screenplay for Her and I think he is going to win. Her is different and unique from all the other movies released this year. American Hustle was too meandering in the first half to deserve a win. Woody Allen being nominated for Blue Jasmine for Best Original screenplay is a joke as the movie is an uncredited adaptation of A Streetcar Named Desire. Dallas Buyers Club had a very good screenplay and Nebraska had very good layered screenplay and they both would have had a very good shot at winning if not for Her.
Emmanuel Lubezki is going to win for Gravity. Would love to see Phedon Papamichael win for Nebraska which was beautifully shot in Black & White. Don’t think Bruno Delbonnel is going to win for Inside Llewyn Davis. The Grandmaster has been shot very artistically but don’t think it has any chance of winning. Roger A. Deakins should not have even been nominated for Prisoners. Anthony Dod Mantle should have been nominated for Rush instead.
Best Film Editing
American Hustle had a boring first half which could have been edited better. Captain Phillips dragged a lot in the second half and could have been edited better too. Dallas Buyers Club was edited well but don’t think its going to win. 12 Years a Slave could win it if they decide to go with the subject. Gravity will most probably win just like it is going to win most of the technical awards.
Best Original Song
The song Alone Yet Not Alone was removed from the nominations after it was discovered that Broughton, a former Governor and current Music Branch executive committee member, had emailed members of the branch to make them aware of his submission during the nominations voting period. “The Moon Song” from Her is different and unique just like the movie was but don’t think it is going to win. Ordinary Love by U2 from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom is good but don’t think it is going to win either. I love “Happy” from Despicable Me 2 by Pharrell Williams and I would be Happy if it wins. I don’t like “Let It Go” from Frozen but I think it is going to win.
Please post your predictions. I will be live blogging the Oscars on March 2nd 7 pm EST.Tags: 12 Years a Slave Articles Cate Blanchett Exclusive Gravity Her Jared Leto Lupita Nyong'o Matthew McConaughey Oscar Predictions Oscars
oscars hold a very special place in your heart for sure!
” I will be live blogging the Oscars on March 2nd 7 pm EST” what if you have a “meeting” at the same time? 😀
Its Sunday evening @baba-ji
I am going to try “live blogging” where the post will get updated in real time without having to refresh the page. Its not the real time comments that I did for the other awards. Hoping it will work well.
you work on sundays also na? 😉
i never understand your anxiety over any kind of awards? you did something similar for filmfare too
Ha Ha. I usually wake up late on weekends and have to usually go somewhere.
Oscars do have some good movies that are nominated but they are some politics and some bad choices too. I have bashed the nominations and there is some bashing in this post too 🙂
Yes I did something similar for Filmfare too and I know many people are interested in awards so this is for them.
do ppl open tq to check live updates for oscar or any award winners? i doubt it. there is twitter which is the fastest. then there are fb groups, whatsapp for the fanatics. also news channels.
but this post is anyway good as its also an original opinion.now that cant be found on twitter/fb/whatsapp.but this live updates i find an excercise of futility
Did not predict for the categories where I have not seen all of the nominated movies.
In the Best Adapted screenplay have not watched Before Midnight. Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave and The Wolf of Wall Street are the other nominations. I think 12 Years a Slave will win. Philomena has a good chance too.
I think Gravity is going to win Best Visual Effects. Have not seen the other nominated movies in that category. I think its also going to win Best Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and may be Original Score too.
Last year I got 90% predictions right 😀 . Agree with u in almost every category . Nebraska is the best movie of the year IMO . I really hope it wins one major award.
Yeah I remember and most of my predictions were wrong 🙂
Liked Nebraska a lot too.
Alexander Payne Doesn’t Like His Oscar Chances
Alexander Payne, your latest film “Nebraska” has been nominated for six Oscars! So, what do you think your chances are at the Academy Awards this Sunday?
“Of Winning? Zero.”
Nada? Not for Best Picture, Cinematography, or Original Screenplay? Not for your directing? Not for June Squibb as Best Supporting Actress? Or for Bruce Dern as Best Actor?
“The only one who has a chance is Bruce and even then it’s pretty darn tough,” Payne told Yahoo Movies over the phone recently while promoting this week’s Blu-ray release of the film.
Payne isn’t just being modest, he’s being honest. “It’s because it’s just not going to happen. You’ve got all those heavy hitters. Cuarón’s going to win Best Director. And one of those films will win Best Picture. And then Bruce has a chance but people are loving McConaughey and DiCaprio as well, so it’s tough.”
[Related: 3 Tweets #Oscars Edition: ‘Nebraska’]
When it comes to cashing in at the Oscars, Payne has every right to be skeptical. Prior to “Nebraska,” his films have been nominated 13 times while only winning two Best Adapted Screenplay awards, one for “The Descendants” and one for “Sideways.” Not that those awards are chopped liver, but he’s learned to manage expectations.
Also, the odds aren’t exactly in Payne’s favor. According to the online gambling site Bovada, Payne’s chances of winning Best Director are 100 to 1, and the odds of “Nebraska” winning Best Picture are 200 to 1.
As you can see in the fascinating Q&A below, Payne’s take on the Oscars is as refreshingly honest as his films tend to be. So we believe him when he says: “Look, it doesn’t matter. As you know, the nominations are what’s important. That’s what gives you a little bounce in your step.”
Perhaps Payne will defy the odds and find a little more reason to bounce when the Oscars are handed out this Sunday.
If the nomination gives you a little bounce in your step, the rest of it is…
Good for the ego and good for business. Last word on that, what’s nice is that a little film like this, a fairly austere film in black and white with no major stars has remained part of the discussion. That’s what’s important.
Why do you think it’s remained part of the discussion?
Well I don’t know. I guess people have liked it. Not a whole lot, I mean it hasn’t made a ton of money, but it’s gotten some good reviews and I think some people find it touching. At least that’s what I’m told. I’ll tell you this: It has a hell of a lot more laughs than the slave movie. You’ve got to have a comedy in there. I think people liked “Wolf of Wall Street” because it’s a good comedy.
Would you consider “Nebraska” a comedy?
Yeah. I make comedies. But it’s not a joke fest. I mean comedy is an infinite form. What’s a comedy? What’s a drama? But I try to direct for humor and laughs, you bet. If you didn’t laugh once then I guess we should get off the phone.
Oh, I laughed. Speaking of laughs, how did you know that Will Forte, MacGruber, would be such a good actor?
I didn’t know. I saw his audition and I thought he did extremely well in the audition. It was a taped audition. Then I invited him into the office and he was even better. I just believed him. He personally has a sweetness which comes through on screen.
Your Academy Awards are for writing, but you decided not to write this one. How come?
Well because thank God I didn’t have to write this one. I mean I did a rewrite on it before shooting to make it more personal and tailor it to my sensibility, but I never entered filmmaking dead set on writing all of my own material. I’ve only written for myself out of desperation and never finding a screenplay that I wanted to direct. It’s fantastic to find an already written screenplay that you want to make.
Now, would winning a directing Oscar mean more to you than winning a writing Academy Award? Or do Academy Awards not really mean anything?
Of course they mean something. Anybody who says they don’t mean anything is lying. Look, I’m sure if it ever happens it’ll be very pleasant, but it’s also very pleasant that I’ve been nominated three times in a row as a director. So, it’s a very good feeling.
I mean obviously you don’t set out to make a film that’s Academy Award winning, but…
I know. It pisses me off when I read some review and the guy goes, “Oh, it’s obviously designed to be Oscar bait.” What the hell does that mean? I read some review of “Nebraska” goes Oscar bait. Yeah. Black and white, no stars. Yeah. Good for you.
Will Forte, Alexander Payne and Bruce Dern at the 2013 New York Film Festival screening of ‘Nebraska.’ (Paramount …
What do you set out to do when you begin a project? I mean obviously you have something that the Academy loves, what do you think that’s been?
When I begin a project I’m not thinking about Academy Awards, I’m thinking about the movie exclusively.
Do you think that kind of focus is what the Academy likes?
I have no idea, man. The other thing is the standards of what a good movie is are fairly low these days. If my movies had been coming out in the ’70s who knows if they would have received the same Academy Award attention if that’s the focus of what you’re writing about. But today, because all the major studies are basically making Roger Corman films, anything that comes along in the year that’s got more literate or adult intentions gets more attention.
I mean it’s not just subject matter though. There’s a completeness to your film, that’s why I love it. There’s so many layers there and there’s more to it than just fluff. There’s so much more to it than a Roger Corman film. How do you ensure that it’s so layered?
Well, isn’t that my job as a director? I don’t know. I mean it’s just your sensibility. Obviously, a lot of it is in the screenplay and I will not begin any form of production until the screenplay is finished. The screenplay has to be very, very tight. Then casting, casting takes a long time. I can’t begin to shoot once I’ve got the right leads for the film and so on and so forth. Then if you find layering in it then I can’t say how, all I can say is thank you.
No, thank you. And best of luck. I think you’ve got a better shot than you think you do.
Thank you, but don’t put any money on it.
Live blogging the Oscars is a good idea smart thinking.
Btw all the best to TQ 2014 Oscar Predictions in advance and waiting for the big event eagerly.
I will be tweeting during the Oscars so some people who come to the site to check out can get all the awards info in real time on tq and people can praise/bash in real time. Yes there is twitter and I will embed those tweets here in real time 🙂
I don’t think that there are that many Indian websites doing live blogging. I am just trying something new. It might work or not.
Just reminding everyone that I will be live blogging the Oscars today at 7 pm EST (tomorrow 5:30 am IST).
Can’t wait 😛
I thought oscar was yesterday . So woke up at 6 AM . What a waste of a holiday .
LOL. i dont wake up before 10 am on a holiday no matter what. there was a time though when i used to wake up at 5:30 am in the morning during 2003-04 Ind vs Aus test series.i was closely following it
Emmy Awards 2014 Prediction – This year’s Emmy Award will be given on Monday . This is going to be one hell of a competition . So here is my prediction-
(I haven’t seen the good wife,Downtown abbey and masters of sex)
Best Drama –
Will win: Breaking Bad
Could win: True Detective
Should win” “Breaking Bad”
Should have been nominated: “The Newsroom,Hannibal”
Most interesting category and a very tough competition . My pick is Breaking Bad .Breaking bad has the edge because its the last season .They were able to end it with perfection which most shows fail .True detective is another critics favorite and it should be a front runner. But beating Breaking Bad will be a impossible task for true detective .In spite of their best season yet Game of thrones & House of cards stands no chance .The newsroom and Hannibal are twos shows which should have been nominated .
Best Actor (Drama)
Will win: Mathew Mccounaghay
Could win: Bryan Cranston/Kavin Spacey
Should win” Byan Cranston
Should have been nominated: Mads Mickelsen
It’ll be a shame if Mathew Mccounaghay wins beating Bryan Cranston .But I fear Emmy will give the award to a Hollywood A-Lister . The rumor suggests that too . He was good but Bryan Cranston’s fantastic portrayal of Walter white is undoubtedly one of the best performances in TV ever. Havin Spacey is the dark horse.h ewas excellent too . But the main contest is between Cranston & Mccounaghey . Mads Mikkelsen the the actor who is in every danish movie 😛 He did an splendid job as Hannibal and deserved a nomination .
Will win: Robin Wright
Should win” “Claire Danes/Robin Wright”
I haven’t seen The good wife and masters of sex .So among the ones I’ve seen Robin Wright and Claire danes both are deserving . Robin Wright won last year and I think she will win . Homeland season 3 was not very appreciated .On the other hand HOC 2 got bigger and better in season 2 . Robin Wright was good.
Best Supporting Actress (Drama) –
Will win – Anna Gunn
Should win- Anna Gunn
Even though I hated her character in Breaking but I’ve no doubt that she is all set to win her second emmy .She was flawless as Skyler White and had a significant role in season 5 .
Best Supporting Actor –
Will win – Aaron Paul
Should win – Aaron Paul/ Peter Dinklage
I would be happy with either of them winning it .Both did an fantastic job in their respective roles .Even though season 5 was more about Walt and his family ,Aaron paul’s character gone through a lot of transformation . And we saw a different Pinkman here . And Aaron Paul did it effortlessly . So he would be an worthy winner.And peter Dinkalge deserves couple of emmys just for his speech during trial .So whoever wins It”l be an extremely well deserved award.
Will make prediction on comedy and Mini series later .
Winners announced .Pretty much on expected line .Clean sweep for breaking bad .It deserve all the praise and recognition .
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Comedy Series
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
Outstanding Writer for a Drama Series
Moira Walley-Beckett for “Ozymandias” on Breaking Bad
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Allison Janney for Masters of Sex
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Joe Morton for Scandal
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series
Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad
Outstanding Television Movie
The Normal Heart
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Coven
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Benedict Cumberbatch for Sherlock: His Last Vow
Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries or Movie
Colin Bucksey for Fargo
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Martin Freeman for Sherlock: His Last Vow
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Kathy Bates for American Horror Story: Coven
Outstanding Writing in a Miniseries or Movie
Steven Moffat for Sherlock: His Last Vow
Outstanding Reality Competition Show
The Amazing Race
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep
National Award-Winning Film Liar’s Dice is India’s Oscar Choice
India will send Hindi-language road film Liar’s Dice to the Oscars next year, the Film Federation of India (FFI) announced today. Liar’s Dice, starring Nawazuddin Siddiqui and Geetanjali Thapa, tells the story of a young mother who takes her daughter (and a pet goat) to Delhi in search of her missing husband. The film won two National Awards this year – Best Actress for Geetanjali Thapa and Best Cinematography.
This year, it was a 30-way race to the Oscars. Liar’s Dice was picked from a record number of films submitted, including Kangana Ranaut’s Queen, Rajkummar Rao’s National Award-winning Shahid, Riteish Deshmukh-produced Marathi film Yellow and Bengali film Jaatishwar starring Prosenjit.
Supran Sen, General Secretary of FFI, told mid-day some days ago, “This is a new record that has been set. The last time we received a high number of entries was back in 2001 when we picked Lagaan out of 25 films and had it represent India at the Oscars.”
Last year, the selection of little known Gujarati film The Good Road over festival favourite The Lunchbox as India’s Oscar entry was met with a fair amount of criticism. In the end, The Good Road did not make it to the final five nominees in the Best Foreign Film category.
Three Indian submissions have made it to the final five at the Oscars in the past – Mother India (which lost to the winning film Nights in Cabiria by one vote), Salaam Bombay and Lagaan.
Four Indians have won individual Oscars – Bhanu Athaiya, Best Costume Design for Gandhi; Resul Pookutty, Best Sound Mixing for Slumdog Millionaire; A R Rahman, Best Original Score for Slumdog Milllionaire; and A R Rahman and Gulzar, Best Original Song for Slumdog’s Jai Ho.
Legendary director Satyajit Ray received an honorary Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.
never heard of this movie . It has any hindi name ?
No I don’t think it has any other name. It supposedly had a technical release in Kerala last Friday but its going to be released in November.
It had won two National Awards.
Best Actress: Geetanjali Thapa
Best Cinematography: Rajeev Ravi