Here are my 2014 Oscar Predictions. This year instead of just predicting the winner in each category I am breaking it down into who I want to win, who I think will win and whose win would be a upset or completely stupid.
American Hustle, Philomena and Captain Phillips are there just to make the numbers. I don’t think they have any real chance of winning. The Wolf of Wall Street doesn’t deserve to be even nominated and it will be a big upset if it does. Her though good has a very long shot at winning the Best Picture. I want Dallas Buyers Club to win but I don’t think it will. Nebraska would also be a deserving winner but don’t think its going to win either. Its a shame that Rush has not even been nominated. Gravity does not deserve to win but there are chances that it could. Its going to be 12 Years a Slave which is going to win because the subject and the movie is something that the Academy cannot afford to not award the Best Picture to.
Jean-Marc Vallée who directed Dallas Buyers Club and Ron Howard who directed the excellent Rush have not even been nominated. David O. Russell did not even deserve to be nominated and I don’t think he has any chance of winning. Martin Scorsese has been nominated more because of his past record and since he was already awarded Best Director for The Departed in 2006 his winning this year will be a big upset. I want Alexander Payne to win for the excellently directed Nebraska but I don’t think he will. So it comes down to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity and Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. I think the Academy will award Best Director to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity but they could decide to go with Steve McQueen for Best Directing too just like they did with The King’s Speech a few years back.
Matthew McConaughey is the clear favorite and the one who deserves to win the Best Actor for Dallas Buyer’s Club. Anyone else winning will be a major upset. He was excellent as the homophobic guy who gets AIDS and who starts to smuggle and sell unapproved drugs. Christian Bale did not even deserve a nomination for American Hustle. Bruce Dern was excellent in Nebraska and the second best performance of the year after Matthew McConaughey and he would win only if the Academy decide to award it as a Lifetime Achievement Award. Leonardo DiCaprio does not deserve to win for The Wolf of Wall Street and it would be really stupid if he does. Chiwetel Ejiofor was ok in 12 Years a Slave and he does not deserve to win. If he does it will be that more of the subject and role taking precedence over the actual performance.
Cate Blanchett is the clear favorite and the one who is going to win for her excellent performance in Blue Jasmine. Meryl Streep was excellent in August: Osage County as she always is but don’t think they are going to award her again. Amy Adams has no chance of winning for American Hustle. Sandra Bullock being even nominated for Gravity is a joke. Judi Dench while good doesn’t deserve to win for Philomena.
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto is the clear favorite and the one who deserves to win for his excellent performance as the transgendered Rayon in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Michael Fassbender was excellent in 12 Years a Slave and the second best performance of the year in the Supporting Actor category and there is a good chance that he might win. Barkhad Abdi was good in Captain Phillips but don’t think he has any chance of winning for his first nomination. Bradley Cooper has no chance of winning for American Hustle either. James Gandolfini while good in Enough Said has been nominated just because of his death. Jonah Hill should not even have been nominated for his horrible over the top performance for The Wolf of Wall Street. Daniel Bruhl’s performance in Rush was the third best performance of the year after Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender but he was not even nominated.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o deserves to win the Best Supporting Actress for her excellent performance in 12 Years a Slave and I think she is going to win. Jennifer Lawrence was very good in American Hustle but her performance in parts was a repeat of her Oscar winning performance from Silver Linings Playbook. And its too soon for the Academy to award her again. Julia Roberts was very good in August: Osage County but don’t think she is going to win. June Squibb was very good in Nebraska but don’t think she is going to win either. Sally Hawkins getting nominated for Blue Jasmine itself is a big thing and I don’t think she deserves to win.
Best Original screenplay
Spike Jonze is the one who deserves to win the Best Original Screenplay for Her and I think he is going to win. Her is different and unique from all the other movies released this year. American Hustle was too meandering in the first half to deserve a win. Woody Allen being nominated for Blue Jasmine for Best Original screenplay is a joke as the movie is an uncredited adaptation of A Streetcar Named Desire. Dallas Buyers Club had a very good screenplay and Nebraska had very good layered screenplay and they both would have had a very good shot at winning if not for Her.
Emmanuel Lubezki is going to win for Gravity. Would love to see Phedon Papamichael win for Nebraska which was beautifully shot in Black & White. Don’t think Bruno Delbonnel is going to win for Inside Llewyn Davis. The Grandmaster has been shot very artistically but don’t think it has any chance of winning. Roger A. Deakins should not have even been nominated for Prisoners. Anthony Dod Mantle should have been nominated for Rush instead.
Best Film Editing
American Hustle had a boring first half which could have been edited better. Captain Phillips dragged a lot in the second half and could have been edited better too. Dallas Buyers Club was edited well but don’t think its going to win. 12 Years a Slave could win it if they decide to go with the subject. Gravity will most probably win just like it is going to win most of the technical awards.
Best Original Song
The song Alone Yet Not Alone was removed from the nominations after it was discovered that Broughton, a former Governor and current Music Branch executive committee member, had emailed members of the branch to make them aware of his submission during the nominations voting period. “The Moon Song” from Her is different and unique just like the movie was but don’t think it is going to win. Ordinary Love by U2 from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom is good but don’t think it is going to win either. I love “Happy” from Despicable Me 2 by Pharrell Williams and I would be Happy if it wins. I don’t like “Let It Go” from Frozen but I think it is going to win.
Please post your predictions. I will be live blogging the Oscars on March 2nd 7 pm EST.Tags: 12 Years a Slave Articles Cate Blanchett Exclusive Gravity Her Jared Leto Lupita Nyong'o Matthew McConaughey Oscar Predictions Oscars