Some background –
- Screens/shows and advance booking
I had expected JTHJ to maul SOS completely in multiplexes but that is not the case. Most places, they have the same number of shows and in some places, SOS is having more number of shows. This will badly affect the collections of JTHJ is multiplexes compared to other biggies.
Also, I did not expect JTHJ to get a super response at SS. But, the response at SS has been amazing and the advance booking is superb. So, the film will collect bountiful at the SS.
A big egg on the face of people who says SRK does not have SS pull or romance doesn’t sell in SS
At this time, it is expected that JTHJ will get around 2700 screens and SOS will get around 1700.
- What is the max capacity?
Ek Tha Tiger did some 31 crores on its opening day with 3300 screens. JTHJ and SOS together will have a 4500 screen release. So, I believe the max capacity on a single day is 41-42 crores which will be tested on 14th November, the day after Diwali.
Now back to the numbers-
Assuming both movies have decent-to-good WOM:
Opening day – Due to Diwali Puja, collections will be affected in the evening and night shows. Total potential might be around 22-24 crores. JTHJ – 14 crores, SOS – 9 croes.
Diwali Day – Potential 41-42 crores. JTHJ – 24-25 crores, SOS = 15-16 crores
Thursday – Sunday – JTHJ 12+10+12+15 = 50 crores. SOS = 8+7+9+12 = 36 crores.
Opening 6 -days: JTHJ = 88-90 crores, SOS = 60-62 crores.
Opening week: JTHJ = 115-120 crores, SOS = 78-80 crores
2nd week: JTHJ = 28-30 crores, SOS = 20 crores
Lifetime: JTHJ = 150-160 crores, SOS = 105-108 crores
Now, if one movie has very bad WOM, it will have a huge impact as the audience has another option available.
If JTHJ is bad and SOS is good, lifetime: JTHJ = 115 crores, SOS = 120 cores
if JTJH is good and SOS is bad, JTHJ = 175 crores+, SOS = 80 crores.
For JTHJ to cross 175+, it will need excellent WOM. I think the max JTHJ can do is 175-180 crores which is more likely if SOS is rejected by the audience.